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Proceedings / Volume 102 / Issue 40430 / FORECASTING & WATER RESOURCES MANAGEMENT

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The IRI Seasonal Climate Prediction System

ASCE Conf. Proc. doi:10.1061/40430(1999)4

WRPMD 1999 — Preparing for the 21st Century
Proceedings of 29th Annual Water Resources Planning and Management Conference
Simon J. Mason1, Lisa Goddard1, Nicholas E. Graham1, Elena Yulaeva1, Liqiang Sun1, and Phillip A. Arkin2

1International Research Institute for climate prediction, Scripps Institution of Oceanography, University of California at San Diego, La Jolla, CA 92093‐0235
2International Research Institute for climate prediction, Lamont‐Doherty Earth Observatory, University of Columbia, Palisades, NY 10964‐8000

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  • Abstract
One of the most significant advances in the atmospheric sciences in recent years has been the development of an ability to predict ocean‐atmosphere variability in the equatorial Pacific Ocean. Occasional basin‐wide warming or cooling of equatorial sea‐surface temperatures, known as El Niño and La Niña events, together with an associated oscillation of atmospheric pressure over the South Pacific Ocean, known as the Southern Oscillation, can have global climate repercussions. Both extremes of the El Niño ‐ Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon have been associated with temperature and rainfall anomalies around the world. The influence of the tropical oceans on the atmosphere forms the theoretical basis of seasonal climate forecasts. The International Research Institute for climate prediction (IRI) was formed in late 1996 with the aim of fostering the improvement, production and use of global forecasts of seasonal‐to‐interannual climate variability for the explicit benefit of society. The development of the 1997/98 El Niño event provided an ideal impetus to the IRI Experimental Forecast Division (IRI‐EFD) to generate seasonal climate forecasts on an operational basis. In the production of these forecasts an extensive suite of forecasting tools has been developed, and these are described in this paper.

© 2004 ASCE

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http://dx.doi.org/10.1061/40430(1999)4

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ISBN:

0‐7844‐0430‐5

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ASCE

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