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Planning to Get Work: An Evaluation of Market Forecasting Techniques for Use by Large Designed Construction Firms
ASCE Conf. Proc. doi:http://dx.doi.org/10.1061/40754(183)54
Construction Research Congress 2005: Broadening Perspectives
Proceedings of the Congress
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Add to FacebookThis research examines market forecasting techniques for use by large design and construction firms working in the nonresidential construction‐market. The intent is to help large firms focus their resources on the markets with the most opportunity several years in advance. Specifically, the research applied five existing and one new forecasting methodology to the task of analyzing and prioritizing multiple construction‐markets. The six forecasting methodologies were used to estimate nonresidential construction activity in all 67 counties of the State of Florida. A 13‐year time period was used (1990–2002) and over fourteen thousand data points were collected for 17 variables in each county in each year. This data set provided a basis for comparative validation of the forecasting techniques. The variable total tax revenue was found to be the best indicator of future non‐residential permit activities. Somewhat surprisingly, there was a low correlation between residential and non‐residential permit activities. Overall, the research findings demonstrate that forecasting methods are useful tools to help design and construction firms identify and prioritize new markets for future growth.
© 2005 ASCE
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