Modeling Correlations in Rail Line Construction
Publication: Journal of Construction Engineering and Management
Volume 138, Issue 9
Abstract
The total construction cost and time of projects are often overrun. It is known that when positive correlations between costs are disregarded, the range of possible total construction costs is underestimated. A model is needed to estimate the effect of correlations on the probability distributions of total cost and total time. Four cost–cost and one cost–time correlations in the construction of rail lines were identified, two of which were investigated in detail using a model applicable to the construction of any networked system. This paper presents the theoretical background of the model, the correlations occurring in rail line construction, and the analysis of the impact of such correlations in two case studies including several scenarios and one sensitivity analysis. The results clearly show that the standard deviation of the total cost increases with the magnitude of the correlation and, most importantly, it dramatically increases with the number of costs that are correlated; it also depends on the type of correlation matrix. Correlation between costs must be modeled to capture the wide range of the possible total cost; otherwise, the total construction cost of projects will continue being significantly underestimated.
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Acknowledgments
The writers would like to acknowledge that the data for the viaduct and the tunnel case studies were made available by Rede ferroviária de Alta Velocidade(RAVE) and Gabinete de Estructuras e Geotecnia(GEG). The first author is also thankful for the support by the MIT Portugal Program and the Berger Fellowship Foundation.
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Information & Authors
Information
Published In
Journal of Construction Engineering and Management
Volume 138 • Issue 9 • September 2012
Pages: 1075 - 1084
Copyright
© 2012 American Society of Civil Engineers.
History
Received: Dec 19, 2009
Accepted: Nov 2, 2011
Published online: Nov 4, 2011
Published in print: Sep 1, 2012
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