Abstract

Determining the risk related to transportation networks due to the occurrence of (natural) hazard events often requires computer support. A simulation-based modeling environment can be useful when modeling a set of related events that lead up to the estimation of the probable consequences of hazard events, which affect network managers and society. Nonetheless, running such simulations can be computationally expensive because each type of event requires a model of its own, and proper interfaces are needed to link events. Therefore, only a limited number of simulations can often be conducted, with the expectation that their results are representative of those that could have been obtained if all simulations had been run. This article presents a simulation reduction technique to calculate the risk related to transportation networks due to extreme hydrometeorological hazard events by conducting statistical analysis on the risk estimated when simulating the impact of nonextreme events. The technique may be of interest to network managers seeking to make decisions based on possible future climate scenarios. An example road network in Switzerland is used to illustrate the technique.

Get full access to this article

View all available purchase options and get full access to this article.

Data Availability Statement

Some or all data, models, or code generated or used during the study are available from the corresponding author by request. Specifically, the data presented in Fig. 7 can be made available upon request. Other data and models are described in Hackl et al. (2018).

Acknowledgments

The work presented here has received funding from the European Union’s Seventh Programme for Research, Technological Development and Demonstration under Grant Agreement No. 603960, and from Horizon 2020, the European Union’s Framework Programme for Research and Innovation under Grant Agreement No. 636285.

References

Avdeeva, Y., and P. van Gelder. 2014. Stress test methodologies (deliverable 6.1): Novel indicators for identifying critical infrastructure at risk from natural hazards (INFRARISK). Delft, Netherlands: INFRARISK.
BAFU (Bundesamt für Umwelt). 2017. Hochwasserwahrscheinlichkeiten (Jahreshochwasser)–Rhein–Domat/Ems (EDV: 2602). Bern, Switzerland: BAFU.
Beniston, M. 2006. “August 2005 intense rainfall event in Switzerland: Not necessarily an analog for strong convective events in a greenhouse climate.” Geophys. Res. Lett. 33 (5): L05701. https://doi.org/10.1029/2005GL025573.
Bucchignani, E., and J. M. Gutierrez. 2015. Definition of different EWIs, to support the management of European CI (deliverable 2.1): INTACT. Lecce, Italy and Santander, Spain: INTACT.
Cain, R. 2016. “Optimisation of data collection strategies for model-based evaluation and decision-making.” Ph.D. thesis, School of Computing Science, Newcastle Univ.
CEDR Task Group I4 on Climate Change Mitigation and Adaptation. 2016. “Acting on climate change.” Brussels, Belgium: Conference of European Directors of Roads.
Clarke, J., R. Corbally, and E. O’Brien. 2016. Case study results (deliverable 8.2): Novel indicators for identifying critical infrastructure at risk from natural hazards (INFRARISK). Dublin, Ireland: INFRARISK.
Croope, S. V. 2010. “Managing critical civil infrastructure systems: Improving resilience to disasters.” Ph.D. thesis, Dept. of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Univ. of Delaware.
D’Ayala, D., et al. 2015. Fragility functions matrix (deliverable 3.2): Novel indicators for identifying critical infrastructure at risk from natural hazards (INFRARISK). London: INFRARISK.
Eadie, C., and D. Favis-Mortlock. 2010. “Estimation of drought and flood recurrence interval from historical discharge data: A case study utilising the power law distribution.” In Proc., European Geosciences Union General Assembly 2010. Vienna, Austria: European Geosciences Union.
Feyen, L., R. Dankers, K. Bódis, P. Salamon, and J. I. Barredo. 2012. “Fluvial flood risk in Europe in present and future climates.” Clim. Change 112 (1): 47–62. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-011-0339-7.
FOEN (Federal Office for the Environment). 2008. The floods of 2005 in Switzerland: Synthesis report on the event analysis. Bern, Switzerland: FOEN.
FOEN (Federal Office for the Environment). 2012. Adaptation to climate change in Switzerland: Goals, challenges and fields of action (first part of the Federal Council’s strategy adopted on 2 March 2012). Bern, Switzerland: FOEN.
Hackl, J., M. Heitzler, J. C. Lam, B. T. Adey, and L. Hurni. 2017. “Development of flood and mudflow events for the spatio-temporal risk assessment of networks.” Eur. Water 57 (1): 179–185.
Hackl, J., J. C. Lam, M. Heitzler, B. T. Adey, and L. Hurni. 2018. “Estimating network related risks: A methodology and an application in the transport sector.” Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. 18 (8): 2273–2293. https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-2273-2018.
Heitzler, M., J. C. Lam, J. Hackl, B. T. Adey, and L. Hurni. 2017a. “A simulation and visualization environment for spatiotemporal disaster risk assessments of network infrastructures.” Cartographica: Int. J. Geogr. Inf. Geovisualization 52 (4): 349–363. https://doi.org/10.3138/cart.52.4.2017-0009.
Heitzler, M., J. C. Lam, J. Hackl, B. T. Adey, and L. Hurni. 2017b. “GPU-accelerated rendering methods to visually analyze large-scale disaster simulation data.” J. Geovisualization Spatial Anal. 1 (1–2): 3. https://doi.org/10.1007/s41651-017-0004-4.
Hilker, N., A. Badoux, and C. Hegg. 2009. “The Swiss flood and landslide damage database 1972–2007.” Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. 9 (3): 913–925. https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-9-913-2009.
Kislov, A. V., and A. N. Krenke. 2009. “Climate-related hazards.” In Natural disasters. Edited by V. M. Kotlyakov, 220–238. Paris: Eolss.
Kunreuther, H., G. Heal, M. Allen, O. Edenhofer, C. B. Field, and G. Yohe. 2013. “Risk management and climate change.” Nat. Clim. Change 3 (5): 447–450. https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate1740.
Lam, J. C., and B. T. Adey. 2016. “Functional loss assessment and restoration analysis to quantify indirect consequences of hazards.” J. Risk Uncertainty Eng. Syst. Part A: Civ. Eng. 2 (4): 04016008. https://doi.org/10.1061/AJRUA6.0000877.
Lam, J. C., B. T. Adey, M. Heitzler, J. Hackl, P. Gehl, N. van Erp, D. D’Ayala, P. van Gelder, and L. Hurni. 2018a. “Stress tests for a road network using fragility functions and functional capacity loss functions.” Reliab. Eng. Syst. Saf. 173 (May): 78–93. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ress.2018.01.015.
Lam, J. C., M. Heitzler, J. Hackl, B. T. Adey, and L. Hurni. 2018b. “Modelling the functional capacity losses of networks exposed to hazards.” Sustainable Resilient Infrastruct. 1–19. https://doi.org/10.1080/23789689.2018.1469357.
Lambert, J. H., Y.-J. Wu, H. You, A. Clarens, and B. Smith. 2013. “Climate change influence on priority setting for transportation infrastructure assets.” J. Infrastruct. Syst. 19 (1): 36–46. https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)IS.1943-555X.0000094.
McPhillips, L. E., et al. 2018. “Defining extreme events: A cross-disciplinary review.” Earth’s Future 6 (3): 441–455. https://doi.org/10.1002/2017EF000686.
Michaelides, S., P. Leviäkangas, C. Doll, and C. Heyndrickx. 2014. “Foreward: EU-funded projects on extreme and high-impact weather challenging European transport systems.” Nat. Hazard. 72 (1): 5–22. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-013-1007-1.
Reith, G. 2004. “Uncertain times: The notion of ‘risk’ and the development of modernity.” Time Soc. 13 (2–3): 383–402. https://doi.org/10.1177/0961463X04045672.
Sadatsafavi, H., A. A. Kim, S. D. Anderson, and P. Bishop. 2019. “Scenario planning application in US highway transportation industry.” J. Infrastruct. Syst. 25 (2): 05019002. https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)IS.1943-555X.0000474.
Staubli, R., and T. Hirt. 2005. Leitfaden für Politiker und Praktiker: Werterhalt von Strassen. Bern, Switzerland: Schweizerischer Gemeindeverband.
Stipanovic Oslakovic, I., H. ter Maat, A. Hartmann, and G. Dewulf. 2013. “Risk assessment of climate change impacts on railway infrastructure.” In Proc., Engineering Project Organization Conf., edited by P. Carrillo and P. Chinowsky. Boulder, CO: Engineering Project Organization Society.
Suarez, P., W. Anderson, V. Mahal, and T. R. Lakshmanan. 2005. “Impacts of flooding and climate change on urban transportation: A systemwide performance assessment of the Boston Metro Area.” Transp. Res. Part D: Transp. Environ. 10 (3): 231–244. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.trd.2005.04.007.
Tsang, J. L., J. H. Lambert, and R. C. Patev. 2002. “Extreme event scenarios for planning of infrastructure projects.” J. Infrastruct. Syst. 8 (2): 42–48. https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)1076-0342(2002)8:2(42).
van der Linden, P., and J. F. B. Mitchell. 2009. ENSEMBLES: Climate change and its impacts at seasonal, decadal and centennial timescales (summary of research and results from the ENSEMBLES project). Exeter, UK: ENSEMBLES.
van Erp, N., R. O. Linger, P. Prak, and P. van Gelder. 2016. Stress test framework for systems (deliverable 6.2): Novel indicators for identifying critical infrastructure at risk from natural hazards (INFRARISK). Delft, Netherlands: INFRARISK.
Vöhrinser, F., and B. Schädler. 2009. “Estimating the future increase in damage costs due to climate change-induced floods in Switzerland.” IOP Conf. Ser.: Earth Environ. Sci. 6 (52): 522012. https://doi.org/10.1088/1755-1307/6/52/522012.
VSS (Schweizerischer Verband der Strassen–und Verkehrsfachleute). 2009a. Kosten-Nutzen-analysen im strassenverkehr; betriebskosten von strassenfahrzeugen (SN 641 827). Zürich, Switzerland: Schweizerischer Verband der Strassen–und Verkehrsfachleute.
VSS (Schweizerischer Verband der Strassen–und Verkehrsfachleute). 2009b. Kosten-nutzen-analysen im strassenverkehr; zeitkosten im personenverkehr (SN 641 822a). Zürich, Switzerland: Schweizerischer Verband der Strassen–und Verkehrsfachleute.
You, H., E. B. Connelly, J. H. Lambert, and A. F. Clarens. 2014. “Climate and other scenarios disrupt priorities in several management perspectives.” Environ. Syst. Decisions 34 (4): 540–554. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10669-014-9525-2.

Information & Authors

Information

Published In

Go to Journal of Infrastructure Systems
Journal of Infrastructure Systems
Volume 26Issue 2June 2020

History

Received: May 4, 2018
Accepted: Aug 26, 2019
Published online: Feb 20, 2020
Published in print: Jun 1, 2020
Discussion open until: Jul 20, 2020

Permissions

Request permissions for this article.

Authors

Affiliations

Research Assistant, Institute of Construction and Infrastructure Management, ETH Zurich, 8093 Zurich, Switzerland; Senior Resilience Lead, Advisory Services, WSP USA, Arlington, VA 22209 (corresponding author). ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3898-1468. Email: [email protected]; [email protected]
Research Assistant, Institute of Construction and Infrastructure Management, ETH Zurich, 8093 Zurich, Switzerland; Assistant Professor, Dept. of Civil Engineering and Industrial Design, Univ. of Liverpool, Liverpool L69 3BX, United Kingdom. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8849-5751. Email: [email protected]; [email protected]
Research Assistant, Institute of Cartography and Geoinformation, ETH Zurich, 8093 Zurich, Switzerland. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9021-4170. Email: [email protected]
Bryan T. Adey, Ph.D. [email protected]
Professor, Institute of Construction and Infrastructure Management, ETH Zurich, 8093 Zurich, Switzerland. Email: [email protected]
Professor, Institute of Cartography and Geoinformation, ETH Zurich, 8093 Zurich, Switzerland. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0453-8743. Email: [email protected]

Metrics & Citations

Metrics

Citations

Download citation

If you have the appropriate software installed, you can download article citation data to the citation manager of your choice. Simply select your manager software from the list below and click Download.

Cited by

View Options

Get Access

Access content

Please select your options to get access

Log in/Register Log in via your institution (Shibboleth)
ASCE Members: Please log in to see member pricing

Purchase

Save for later Information on ASCE Library Cards
ASCE Library Cards let you download journal articles, proceedings papers, and available book chapters across the entire ASCE Library platform. ASCE Library Cards remain active for 24 months or until all downloads are used. Note: This content will be debited as one download at time of checkout.

Terms of Use: ASCE Library Cards are for individual, personal use only. Reselling, republishing, or forwarding the materials to libraries or reading rooms is prohibited.
ASCE Library Card (5 downloads)
$105.00
Add to cart
ASCE Library Card (20 downloads)
$280.00
Add to cart
Buy Single Article
$35.00
Add to cart

Get Access

Access content

Please select your options to get access

Log in/Register Log in via your institution (Shibboleth)
ASCE Members: Please log in to see member pricing

Purchase

Save for later Information on ASCE Library Cards
ASCE Library Cards let you download journal articles, proceedings papers, and available book chapters across the entire ASCE Library platform. ASCE Library Cards remain active for 24 months or until all downloads are used. Note: This content will be debited as one download at time of checkout.

Terms of Use: ASCE Library Cards are for individual, personal use only. Reselling, republishing, or forwarding the materials to libraries or reading rooms is prohibited.
ASCE Library Card (5 downloads)
$105.00
Add to cart
ASCE Library Card (20 downloads)
$280.00
Add to cart
Buy Single Article
$35.00
Add to cart

Media

Figures

Other

Tables

Share

Share

Copy the content Link

Share with email

Email a colleague

Share