Technical Papers

Quantitative Risk Evaluation of Fatal Incidents in Construction Based on Frequency and Probability Analysis


The construction industry involves a variety of construction works, all of which differ in terms of the frequency and probability of fatal incidents and types of accidents. Accordingly, the risk level of various construction works should be defined for effective safety management at the design and construction phases. This study proposes an approach for quantifying the risk level of fatal incidents in construction works based on frequency and probability analysis using estimation and clustering methods. The main study objective is accomplished in four steps. It was found that the average normalized ranking (ANR) ranged from 2.51 to 26.88, with the most dangerous construction works being scaffolding and demolition works (2.51). Based on the ANR, 27 construction works were categorized into five groups with risk levels ranked from 1 to 5. Risk level 5, the most dangerous group of construction works, was composed of scaffolding and demolition works and roofing and sheet metal construction works, both of which were higher than other construction works considering the frequency and probability of fatal incidents.