Abstract

The combined effect of storm surge and wave action during severe storms in coastal regions can cause significant damage to civil infrastructures with cascading consequences to coastal communities and their residents with respect to emergency response, repair, and recovery. This coupling of natural, physical, and social systems presents an important yet relatively underexplored problem in the probabilistic risk assessment of coastal systems. Not only does coupling exist among the built and social systems triggered by natural hazard events, but a wealth of sources of uncertainties inherent in modeling these systems also renders the problem more complex. This paper presents a framework for the probabilistic risk assessment of coupled natural-physical-social systems exposed to coastal storms. It departs from traditional literature in this area by considering interconnected coastal transportation and residential building infrastructure coupled with social systems—households in this case—focusing on households failing to respond to official calls to evacuate. A holistic multihazard risk assessment framework is posed for probing these coupled systems in the face of uncertainty. New hybrid risk metrics across built and social systems are proposed, including the probability of nonconnectivity to emergency services, time loss to access emergency services, and the number of nonevacuees at risk. The concept of a hot household is developed, at which a building with nonevacuees inside experiences collapse-limit failure and is disconnected from emergency services during a storm event. The proposed framework is applied to a case study on Galveston Island, Texas, considering uncertainties in storm frequency and intensity, damage to physical infrastructure (buildings, roadways, and bridges), and evacuation decisions of the population. The resulting models offer a foundation for risk-informed decision-making to enhance the resilience of coastal communities and provide new insight into the coupled performance of natural-physical-social systems in the face of coastal storms.

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Data Availability Statement

Some or all data, models, or code generated or used during the study are available in a repository or online in accordance with funder data retention policies (https://incore.ncsa.illinois.edu/). Some or all data, models, or code that support the findings of this study are available from the corresponding author upon reasonable request (hazard, building inventory, transportation network, and hybrid performance metric output files).

Acknowledgments

This research was conducted as part of the National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST) Center of Excellence for Risk-Based Community Resilience Planning under Cooperative Agreement No. 70NANB15H044 between the NIST and Colorado State University. Household evacuation data were collected under NSF Grant No. CMMI 0901605. The content expressed in this paper are the views of the authors and do not necessarily represent the opinions or views of NIST, the US Department of Commerce, or the National Science Foundation. The authors gratefully acknowledge two anonymous reviewers who provided feedback on a draft of this manuscript and the support of colleagues within the Center of Excellence, particularly those members of the Galveston Testbed who informed this study. The codes used in this analysis will be a part of the IN-CORE public release version 1.5, scheduled for July 2020 (van de Lindt et al. 2018).

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Natural Hazards Review
Volume 22Issue 3August 2021

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Received: Dec 31, 2019
Accepted: Dec 11, 2020
Published online: Apr 8, 2021
Published in print: Aug 1, 2021
Discussion open until: Sep 8, 2021

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Ehsan Fereshtehnejad [email protected]
Postdoctoral Research Associate Alumnus, Dept. of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Rice Univ., Houston, TX 77005; Bridge Management Engineer, Virginia Dept. of Transportation, 1401 E. Broad St., Richmond, VA 23219. Email: [email protected]
Ioannis Gidaris, M.ASCE [email protected]
Postdoctoral Research Associate Alumnus, Dept. of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Rice Univ., Houston, TX 77005; Assistant Vice President and Specialist of Catastrophe Perils, Swiss RE, 1301 Ave. of the Americas, New York, NY 10019. Email: [email protected]
Associate Research Scientist, College of Architecture, Texas A&M Univ., College Station, TX 77843. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5601-0126. Email: [email protected]
Tori Tomiczek, M.ASCE [email protected]
Assistant Professor, Naval Architecture and Ocean Engineering Dept., United States Naval Academy, Annapolis, MD 21402 (corresponding author). Email: [email protected]; [email protected]
Jamie E. Padgett, M.ASCE [email protected]
Professor, Dept. of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Rice Univ., Houston, TX 77005. Email: [email protected]
Daniel T. Cox, M.ASCE [email protected]
Professor, School of Civil and Construction Engineering, Oregon State Univ., Corvallis, OR 97331. Email: [email protected]
Shannon Van Zandt [email protected]
Professor, Dept. of Landscape Architecture and Urban Planning, Texas A&M Univ., College Station, TX 77843. Email: [email protected]
Professor, Dept. of Landscape Architecture and Urban Planning, Texas A&M Univ., College Station, TX 77843; Program Director, Div. of Civil, Mechanical, and Manufacturing Innovation, Engineering Directorate, National Science Foundation, 2415 Eisenhower Ave., Alexandria, VA 22314. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8726-4505. Email: [email protected]; [email protected]

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