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Technical Papers
Jan 19, 2015

Strategic Planning for Drought Mitigation under Climate Change

Publication: Journal of Water Resources Planning and Management
Volume 141, Issue 9

Abstract

Droughts continue to be a major natural hazard, and mounting evidence of global warming confronts society with a pressing question: Will climate change aggravate the risk of drought at the local scale? Are current infrastructures sufficient to mitigate the damage of future drought, or is in-advance infrastructure expansion needed for future drought preparedness? To address these questions, this study presents a decision-support framework based on a coupled simulation and stochastic optimization model through a case study area, the Frenchman Creek basin (FCB), part of the Republican River basin. A complex watershed simulation model is established and converted into a statistical surrogate model for computational feasibility. Decisions for drought preparedness include traditional short-term tactical measures (e.g., facility operation) and long-term or in-advance strategic measures, which require capital investment. A scenario-based, three-stage stochastic optimization model assesses the roles of strategic measures and tactical measures in drought preparedness and mitigation. Modeling scenarios of the future climate are developed from multiple general circulation models (GCMs) and regional climate models (RCMs) under different greenhouse gas emission scenarios to represent the various possible climatic conditions in the midterm (2040s) and long-term (2090s) time horizons. The result of the case study shows that current facilities are not enough to mitigate the damage under future climate conditions, indicating the requirement for infrastructure investment; meanwhile, socioeconomic factors (represented by the discount rate) complicate the decision along the planning horizon.

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Acknowledgments

This study was financially supported by U.S. National Science Foundation grant CMMI 0825654. The authors appreciate the discussion with Dr. Mashor Housh. The authors appreciate the comments from the reviewers.

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Go to Journal of Water Resources Planning and Management
Journal of Water Resources Planning and Management
Volume 141Issue 9September 2015

History

Received: Jun 4, 2014
Accepted: Dec 3, 2014
Published online: Jan 19, 2015
Discussion open until: Jun 19, 2015
Published in print: Sep 1, 2015

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Ximing Cai, M.ASCE [email protected]
Professor, Dept. of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Univ. of Illinois, Urbana-Champaign, IL 61801 (corresponding author). E-mail: [email protected]
Ruijie Zeng [email protected]
Ph.D. Student, Dept. of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Univ. of Illinois, Urbana-Champaign, IL 61801. E-mail: [email protected]
Won Hee Kang [email protected]
Lecturer, Institute for Infrastructure Engineering, Univ. of Western Sydney, Penrith, NSW 2751, Australia. E-mail: [email protected]
Junho Song, M.ASCE [email protected]
Associate Professor, Dept. of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Seoul National Univ., Seoul 151-742, Korea. E-mail: [email protected]
Albert J. Valocchi, M.ASCE [email protected]
Professor, Dept. of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Univ. of Illinois, Urbana-Champaign, IL 61801. E-mail: [email protected]

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