Uncertain Water Balance-Based Sustainability Index of Supply and Demand
Publication: Journal of Water Resources Planning and Management
Volume 147, Issue 5
Abstract
In order to plan for future water resource development, estimating sustainable levels of water supply and demand is essential to ensure that available water can be used in a way that satisfies all sectors. Different indices have been used to assess the sustainability of water supply-demand within a catchment. The most important elements of water sustainability in a region are its water supply-demand, environmental, and socio-economic attributes. In this paper, an index called PI-Plus (P for Paydari as it is an indigenous term for sustainability) is extended, and its interdependencies with another index called sustainability group index are taken into account. A water balance platform is used that utilizes hydrologic cycle attributes and could be considered as a systems approach to sustainability evaluation. A hypothetical case study is selected that has the components of a real-world problem. A time series of water balance data is synthesized by utilizing basic climatic and hydrologic data from a real watershed. This could be considered as a contribution and a practical engineering solution to generate water balance data in the developing regions. PI-Plus consists of five indicators representing the estimations of gross annual available water (using the physical input-output table approach), economic efficiency of delivered water, system’s performance in the context of reliability of supply, and maintaining aquifer storage and river instream flow requirements. Furthermore, a framework for considering a new 5th indicator for social aspects is developed by employing the Nash bargaining theory. Unlike many previous studies of water-related indices, a platform is developed that can fine-tune the assessment of water system performance of different elements and components in a watershed and water cycle scale. Then, by applying uncertainty analysis, the margins of errors in estimating the indicators are determined. The results also present the extent of indicators’ improvement that could be achieved. This study could provide a basis for water balance studies and the implementation of different triggers that are socially sensitive and technically feasible to measure sustainability in the developing regions.
Get full access to this article
View all available purchase options and get full access to this article.
Data Availability Statement
All input data used in this research can be found from the publicly-available domains of the basic data used for the hypothetical case study through (https://www.maj.ir.), (http://www.moe.gov.ir.), (http://en.mimt.gov.ir.), and (https://www.amar.org.ir.) links. All data and models generated during the study are available from the corresponding author by request.
Acknowledgments
The authors would like to thank the Associate Editor, reviewers, and Dr. M. A. Olyaie of the University of Tehran for their constructive comments.
References
Ahmadi, A., M. Nasseri, and D. P. Solomatine. 2019. “Parametric uncertainty assessment of hydrological models: Coupling UNEEC-P and a fuzzy general regression neural network.” Hydrol. Sci. J. 64 (9): 1080–1094. https://doi.org/10.1080/02626667.2019.1610565.
Ahmadi, B. 2011. “A climate driven model for increased in water productivity agricultural sector.” Master thesis, Univ. of Tehran.
Bacon, M. 2009. Water use efficiency in plant biology. New York: Wiley.
Brânzei, S., V. Gkatzelis, and R. Mehta. 2017. “Nash social welfare approximation for strategic agents.” In Proc., 2017 ACM Conf. on Economics and Computation, 611–628. New York: Association for Computing Machinery.
Chaves, H. M., and S. Alipaz. 2007. “An integrated indicator based on basin hydrology, environment, life, and policy: The watershed sustainability index.” Water Resour. Manage. 21 (5): 883–895. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11269-006-9107-2.
Dinar, A. 2001. “Scale and equity in water resource development: A Nash Bargaining model.” Nat. Resour. Model. 14 (4): 477–494. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1939-7445.2001.tb00070.x.
Fu, J., P. A. Zhong, F. Zhu, J. Chen, Y. N. Wu, and B. Xu. 2018. “Water resources allocation in transboundary river based on asymmetric Nash–Harsanyi Leader–Follower game model.” Water 10 (3): 270. https://doi.org/10.3390/w10030270.
Gasco, G., D. Hermosilla, A. Gasco, and J. M. Naredo. 2005. “Application of a physical input–output table to evaluate the development and sustainability of continental water resources in Spain.” Environ. Manage. 36 (1): 59–72.
Goldberg, D. E. 1989. Genetic algorithms in search optimization and machine learning. Reading, MA: Addison-Wesley.
Howell, T. A. 2001. “Enhancing water use efficiency in irrigated agriculture.” Agron. J. 93 (2): 281–289. https://doi.org/10.2134/agronj2001.932281x.
Iran Ministry of Agricultural. 2018. “Statistical yearbook of East Azarbaijan province.” Accessed 30 April, 2019. https://www.maj.ir.
Jamab Consulting Engineering Company. 1999. Aras river basin master plan of water resources for Aras river basin. Tehran, Iran: Ministry of Energy.
Juwana, I., N. Muttil, and B. J. C. Perera. 2016. “Uncertainty and sensitivity analysis of West Java water sustainability index—A case study on Citarum catchment in Indonesia.” Ecol. Indic. 61 (Feb): 170–178. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolind.2015.08.034.
Juwana, I., B. J. Perera, and N. Muttil. 2010a. “A water sustainability index for West Java. Part 1: Developing the conceptual framework.” Water Sci. Technol. 62 (7): 1629–1640. https://doi.org/10.2166/wst.2010.452.
Juwana, I., B. J. C. Perera, and N. Muttil. 2010b. “A water sustainability index for West Java. Part 2: Refining the conceptual framework using Delphi technique.” Water Sci. Technol. 62 (7): 1641–1652. https://doi.org/10.2166/wst.2010.453.
Kahlown, M. A., A. Raoof, M. Zubair, and W. D. Kemper. 2007. “Water use efficiency and economic feasibility of growing rice and wheat with sprinkler irrigation in the Indus Basin of Pakistan.” Agric. Water Manage. 87 (3): 292–298. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agwat.2006.07.011.
Karamouz, M., B. Ahmadi, and Z. Zahmatkesh. 2012. “Developing an agricultural planning model in a watershed considering climate change impacts.” J. Water Resour. Plann. Manage. 139 (4): 349–363. https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)WR.1943-5452.0000263.
Karamouz, M., P. Mohammadpour, and D. Mahmoodzadeh. 2017. “Assessment of sustainability in water supply-demand considering uncertainties.” Water Resour. Manage. 31 (12): 3761–3778. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11269-017-1703-9.
Lar Consulting Engineering Company. 2016. Aras river basin master plan of water resources for Aras river basin, evaluation of water resources report Azerbaijan regional water board authority. Tehran, Iran: Lar Consulting Engineering Company.
Loucks, D. P. 1997. “Quantifying trends in system sustainability.” Hydrol. Sci. J. 42 (4): 513–530. https://doi.org/10.1080/02626669709492051.
Mullick, R. A., M. S. Babel, and S. R. Perret. 2010. “Flow characteristics and environmental flow requirements for the Teesta River, Bangladesh.” In Proc., Int. Conf. on Environmental Aspects of Bangladesh (ICEAB10). Dhaka, Bangladesh: Univ. of Dhaka.
Nash, J. F. 1950. “Equilibrium points in n-person games.” Proc. Nat. Acad. Sci. 36 (1): 48–49. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.36.1.48.
Nicklow, J., et al. 2010. “State of the art for genetic algorithms and beyond in water resources planning and management.” J. Water Resour. Plann. Manage. 136 (4): 412–432. https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)WR.1943-5452.0000053.
Policy Research Initiative. 2007. Canadian water sustainability index: PRI project report on sustainable development. Ottawa: Policy Research Initiative.
Richter, B. D., J. V. Baumgartner, J. Powell, and D. P. Braun. 1996. “A method for assessing hydrologic alteration within ecosystems.” Conserv. Biol. 10 (4): 1163–1174. https://doi.org/10.1046/j.1523-1739.1996.10041163.x.
Roa Garcia, M. C. 2014. “Equity, efficiency and sustainability in water allocation in the Andes: Trade-offs in a full world.” Water Altern. 7 (2): 298–319.
Sandoval-Solis, S., D. C. McKinney, and D. P. Loucks. 2011. “Sustainability index for water resources planning and management.” J. Water Resour. Plann. Manage. 137 (5): 381–390. https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)WR.1943-5452.0000134.
Sieber, J. 2019. Water evaluation and planning (WEAP) system: Software version: 2019.0. Somerville, MA: Stockholm Environment Institute.
Sullivan, C. 2002. “Calculating a water poverty index.” World Dev. 30 (7): 1195–1210. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0305-750X(02)00035-9.
Xu, Z., L. Yao, X. Zhou, M. Moudi, and L. Zhang. 2019. “Optimal irrigation for sustainable development considering water rights transaction: A Stackelberg-Nash-Cournot equilibrium model.” J. Hydrol. 575 (May): 628–637. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2019.05.063.
Yates, D., J. Sieber, D. Purkey, and A. Huber-Lee. 2005. “WEAP21: A demand-, priority-, and preference-driven water planning model. Part 1: Model characteristics.” Water Int. 30 (4): 487–500. https://doi.org/10.1080/02508060508691893.
Information & Authors
Information
Published In
Journal of Water Resources Planning and Management
Volume 147 • Issue 5 • May 2021
Copyright
© 2021 American Society of Civil Engineers.
History
Received: May 30, 2019
Accepted: Oct 16, 2020
Published online: Feb 25, 2021
Published in print: May 1, 2021
Discussion open until: Jul 25, 2021
Authors
Metrics & Citations
Metrics
Citations
Download citation
If you have the appropriate software installed, you can download article citation data to the citation manager of your choice. Simply select your manager software from the list below and click Download.
Cited by
- Mehrdad Khoshoei, Hamid R. Safavi, Ashish Sharma, Water Supply Sustainability Revisited: Assessment Methodology for Multiple Water Resources, Journal of Water Resources Planning and Management, 10.1061/JWRMD5.WRENG-6072, 149, 12, (2023).
- Zinabu Wolde, Wei Wu, Haile Ketema, Benjamin Karikari, Xiansheng Liu, Quantifying Sustainable Land-Water-Energy-Food Nexus: The Case of Sustainable Livelihoods in an East African Rift Valley, Atmosphere, 10.3390/atmos13040638, 13, 4, (638), (2022).
- Dong-Sin Shih, Yung-Chia Chiu, Kai Wang, Combined Numerical Simulation and Groundwater Depletion Sensitivity Analysis for Dynamic Pumping Management, Journal of Water Resources Planning and Management, 10.1061/(ASCE)WR.1943-5452.0001530, 148, 3, (2022).
- Elham Ebrahimi Sarindizaj, Mohammad Karamouz, Dynamic Water Balance Accounting-Based Vulnerability Evaluation Considering Social Aspects, Water Resources Management, 10.1007/s11269-021-03046-4, 36, 2, (659-681), (2022).
- Reyhaneh Rahimi, Hassan Tavakol-Davani, Mohsen Nasseri, An Uncertainty-Based Regional Comparative Analysis on the Performance of Different Bias Correction Methods in Statistical Downscaling of Precipitation, Water Resources Management, 10.1007/s11269-021-02844-0, 35, 8, (2503-2518), (2021).
- Yixin Zhou, The overall framework design of automatic logistics system using a hybrid ANN-PSO model, Engineering with Computers, 10.1007/s00366-021-01388-6, 38, S3, (2515-2531), (2021).