Construction Research Congress 2012

Barriers to Applying Probabilistic Risk Analysis in Design and Construction Projects


Using a case study analysis of Construction Industry Institute (CII) and Project Management Institute (PMI) member companies, this CII-funded research sought to understand the current use of risk management tools in the industry, including deterministic and probabilistic project-control techniques. The results indicate that formal risk analysis is not adopted universally. Given the benefits realized from the use of these tools, this research sought to understand why organizations are not using more formal probabilistic approaches to risk management. The research uncovered several barriers organizations face when trying to implement these probabilistic approaches, including a lack of organizational support, a lack of procedures, a lack of technical expertise to implement and interpret outputs, and a lack of transparency amongst stakeholders. By focusing on overcoming these barriers through training employees, adopting processes and procedures for risk management, and regularly communicating with project stakeholders; organizations can implement more formal project risk management approaches when warranted.