Statewide Extreme Rainfall Projections for Florida Using Downscaled Climate Data
Publication: World Environmental and Water Resources Congress 2022
ABSTRACT
Recent research in climate science has highlighted the need to abandon stationarity, the use of past observations to predict future rainfall, for a new paradigm that is based on the concept of nonstationarity. This work used downscaled climate model results, including coordinated regional downscaling experiment, localized constructed analogues, and multivariate adaptive constructed analogs. Best models were selected using the interannual variability of climate extreme metrics by comparing model outputs to a historical data set. Using the peaks-over-threshold approach, depth-duration-frequency (DDF) curves were generated for five Florida climate divisions with rainfall durations of 1, 3, 7, and 10 days for two future periods of analysis at return periods of 5, 10, 25, 100, and 200 years. Change factors (CFs) were calculated by comparing the DDF estimates to Atlas 14 DDF data sets at 242 locations across Florida. CFs ranged from 1 to 1.6 indicating that extreme rainfall is predicted to be larger than what is currently provided by Atlas 14 stations.
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World Environmental and Water Resources Congress 2022
Pages: 1279 - 1292
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Published online: Jun 2, 2022
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