Abstract
Natural disasters in 2011 alone resulted in $366 billion (2011 US$) in direct damages and 29,782 fatalities worldwide. Storms and floods accounted for up to 70% of the 302 natural disasters worldwide, with earthquakes producing the greatest number of fatalities. Managing these risks rationally requires an appropriate definition of resilience and associated metrics. This paper provides a resilience definition that meets a set of requirements with clear relationships to reliability and risk as key relevant metrics. The resilience definition proposed is of the intension type, which is of the highest order. Resilience metrics are reviewed, and simplified ones are proposed to meet logically consistent requirements drawn from measure theory. Such metrics provide a sound basis for the development of effective decision-making tools for multihazard environments. The paper also examines recovery, with its classifications based on level, spatial, and temporal considerations. Three case studies are developed and used to gain insights to help define recovery profiles. Two recovery profiles, linear and step functions, are introduced. Computational examples and parametric analysis illustrate the reasonableness of the metrics proposed.
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Acknowledgments
The author would like to acknowledge the accommodation of the National Security Analysis Department of the Applied Physics Laboratory at The Johns Hopkins University (APL-JHU) during his sabbatical leave in 2014-15. The opinions articulated in the paper are solely the personal opinions of the author.
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Information & Authors
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Published In
ASCE-ASME Journal of Risk and Uncertainty in Engineering Systems, Part A: Civil Engineering
Volume 1 • Issue 3 • September 2015
Copyright
© 2015 American Society of Civil Engineers.
History
Received: Dec 14, 2014
Accepted: Mar 18, 2015
Published online: May 15, 2015
Published in print: Sep 1, 2015
Discussion open until: Oct 15, 2015
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