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Technical Papers
Jan 11, 2020

Predicting Traffic Conflicts for Expressway Diverging Areas Using Vehicle Trajectory Data

Publication: Journal of Transportation Engineering, Part A: Systems
Volume 146, Issue 3

Abstract

Traffic crashes occur frequently in expressway diverging areas. The influential factors for traffic crashes in expressway diverging areas were investigated in this study using vehicle trajectory data. An hourly conflict risk index (HCRI) was introduced to develop a traffic conflict prediction model for expressway diverging areas. The data collectors were trained to identify conflict severity, and Tracker 5.0 was used to calculate the time to collision (TTC) for rear-end and lane-change conflicts, respectively. Based on the value of direct economic losses, the traffic risk index for traffic conflicts of different types and severities is established, and the severity of traffic conflict was characterized by the HCRI. A multivariate linear regression model was applied to analyze the relationship between HCRI and various influential factors. A comparison between an hourly conflict ratio (HCR) model and the HCRI model showed that the HCRI model performed better. Finally, it was found that the mainline traffic volume and the ramp traffic volume were positively associated with HCRI, while the deceleration lane length and mainline speed were negatively associated with the HCRI.

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Data Availability Statement

The data, models, and codes used for the study, in whole or in part, are available from the corresponding author by request. The original video data can be obtained upon request. The models used during the study appear in the published article.

Acknowledgments

This research was supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (71871059, 51208100). Author contributions: study conception and design by Y. Ma and S. Chen; data collection by S. Li and Q. Xiang; analysis and interpretation of results by Y. Ma, H. Meng, and S. Li; draft manuscript preparation by Y. Ma, H. Meng, and J. Zhao. All authors reviewed the results and approved the final version of the manuscript.

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Information & Authors

Information

Published In

Go to Journal of Transportation Engineering, Part A: Systems
Journal of Transportation Engineering, Part A: Systems
Volume 146Issue 3March 2020

History

Received: Apr 9, 2019
Accepted: Aug 20, 2019
Published online: Jan 11, 2020
Published in print: Mar 1, 2020
Discussion open until: Jun 11, 2020

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Authors

Affiliations

Yongfeng Ma, Ph.D. [email protected]
Assistant Professor, School of Transportation, Southeast Univ., Nanjing 211189, China (corresponding author). Email: [email protected]
Graduate Research Assistant, School of Transportation, Southeast Univ., Nanjing 211189, China. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2284-3450. Email: [email protected]
Shuyan Chen, Ph.D. [email protected]
Professor, School of Transportation, Southeast Univ., Nanjing 211189, China. Email: [email protected]
Jiguang Zhao, Ph.D. [email protected]
P.E.
Senior Project Engineer, HNTB Corporation, 1276 Metropolitan Blvd., Tallahassee, FL 32311. Email: [email protected]
Shen Li, Ph.D. [email protected]
Deputy Director General, Yan’an Transportation Bureau, Dongfanghong Ave., Yan’an 716000, China. Email: [email protected]
Qiaojun Xiang, Ph.D. [email protected]
Professor, School of Transportation, Southeast Univ., Nanjing 211189, China. Email: [email protected]

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